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Based on previous interview cut-offs and percentile trends, our working prediction is 2400 for Victorian non-DRL applicants and 2100 for Dean's Rural List applicants.
Monash direct-entry medicine is one of the most competitive undergraduate medical pathways in Australia. Each year, applicants try to estimate the UCAT ANZ score likely to secure a December interview.
Monash publishes previous interview data as a guide, but the next cut-off cannot be known in advance. The final threshold depends on the strength of the applicant cohort, the number of eligible applicants and the number of interview invitations available.
| Intake year | DRL interview offers | DRL cut-off | Non-DRL interview offers | Non-DRL cut-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 166 | 2620 (61st percentile) | 193 | 2990 (90th percentile) |
| 2024 | 163 | 2670 (64th percentile) | 193 | 3020 (91st percentile) |
| 2025 | 194 | 2730 (66th percentile) | 193 | 3140 (93rd percentile) |
| 2026 | 193 | 2050 (66th percentile) | 192 | 2380 (94th percentile) |
| 2027 prediction | Not yet known | Approximately 2100 | Not yet known | Approximately 2400 |
Note: Raw UCAT totals from different scoring structures should not be compared without considering percentile rank.
The non-DRL pathway has remained extremely competitive. The historical percentile threshold increased from the 90th percentile for the 2023 intake to the 94th percentile for the 2026 intake.
On that basis, our working prediction for the 2027 intake is a UCAT total of approximately 2400. This estimate assumes that competition remains close to the recent mid-90th-percentile level.
The DRL cut-off has historically been lower than the non-DRL cut-off because applicants are assessed within a separate rural applicant group. In recent published data, the DRL threshold has sat around the low-to-mid 60th percentile range.
Our 2027 prediction is therefore approximately 2100. This is slightly above the 2026 score of 2050 while remaining consistent with the recent percentile pattern.
The sharp fall in the published raw cut-off between the 2025 and 2026 intakes does not mean that entry suddenly became easier. The percentile data shows the opposite for non-DRL applicants: the threshold moved from the 93rd percentile to the 94th percentile.
For forecasting purposes, percentile position is therefore a better guide than simply comparing raw totals across years. Our predictions of 2400 and 2100 are intended to reflect the recent competitive position of each applicant group.
Treat the predicted cut-off as a planning guide, not as a target to stop at. Being just above a forecast can still be risky because the real threshold may move.
| Applicant group | Predicted cut-off | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Victorian non-DRL | 2400 | Near the forecast threshold; higher is safer. |
| Dean's Rural List | 2100 | Potentially competitive under the forecast; aim above it where possible. |
No. It is only a prediction based on previous cut-offs and percentile trends.
It may be competitive under this forecast, but the final cut-off could be higher or lower.
Percentile rank is the more reliable comparison when the scoring structure differs between years.
No. The UCAT cut-off relates to interview selection, not a final medicine offer.
Victorian non-DRL applicants: approximately 2400
Dean's Rural List applicants: approximately 2100
These estimates provide a useful benchmark, but applicants should continue aiming for their strongest possible UCAT result and prepare early for the interview stage.
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